Thanks to a reminder on cable news last night, I realized that an anniversary had arrived–Nixon formally tendered his resignation at noon on the 9th of August, 1974. Facing certain impeachment (and a conviction in the Senate) he had no other choice.
I still have copies of the complete coverage by the Washington Post that day. I watched the news from the student lounge at GULC, early in my first year of law school. A school where Sam Dash, Chief Counsel of the Watergate Committee, served as an adjunct professor. I cheered at the coverage and scoffed at then prominent newsman John Chancellor’s pronouncement of the sad day for America and that no one was celebrating at this departure. How wrong an assessment! I wasn’t the only one rejoicing.
So many cabinet officials, so many staff and even his first Vice-President went to jail. Spiro Agnew was simply a grifter, like “all the best
people criminals“ hired by or appointed to the Trump administration. Nixon himself avoided jail, pardoned by his second Vice-President–Gerald Ford. That act assured that Ford would NOT be reelected after assuming office.
My prediction: many more members of the Trump administration will wind up behind bars than did those who worked for Nixon. But that’s a story for another day.
Here’s the scenario for Trump’s exit next year, based on my assessment of what will come of the Mueller investigation:
- Indictments of Americans will come early in September for conspiracy and criminal acts associated with the Russian interference in the 2016 election (see my predictions about that earlier this year; I’m thinking of adding Bannon for his leadership at Cambridge Analytica and confirming Brad Parscale–NO family members or in-laws in September)
- HOWEVER, Mueller will not issue a final report with recommendations to Congress in September or October mentioning Trump
- Trump will NEVER sit down with Mueller voluntarily, NOR will Mueller issue a subpoena to Trump before the midterm elections (more below) ordering Trump’s appearance in front of the grand jury
- Manafort will be convicted in his first trial, will plead guilty in the second one (scheduled for September) based on Trump’s promised (out of fear, not loyalty) pardon
- The Democrats will take control of the House with a massive mandate in the midterms–the Senate is a possibility, but not highly likely
- Depending on Trump’s actions, reactions and tweets after the indictments and the midterms, Mueller may issue a subpoena to Trump in mid-January–as the next Congress is seated
- More likely, Mueller will NEVER issue a subpoena to Trump because Mueller gave Trump ample opportunity to appear voluntarily AND Mueller already has everything he needs for both conspiracy and obstruction without hearing from Trump
- Not only that, but Trump will have become a target, not a subject of the investigation–meaning he shouldn’t appear before the grand jury
- Mueller’s final report with recommendations will be issued after the midterms–I believe (perhaps hope is more accurate) this will be in mid-January, after the next Congress takes office
- Mueller’s final actions will include additional indictments, naming Trump as an unindicted co-conspirator; he will cite Trump as having obstructed the investigation and participated in conspiring with the Russians
- With no Russo-Publicans left to protect him in the House,Trump will be unable to tolerate the investigations which will ensue–investigations in the House (whether articles of impeachment are voted or not) which will undoubtedly include examination of his personal and business tax returns
- He will resign by the summer of 2019–perhaps 45 years to the day, from Nixon’s resignation